(openPR) In less than two months, Germany will hold parliamentary elections. A tool developed at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management calculates the allocation of seats in parliament as well as stable coalition relationships and analyzes the distribution of ministries between possible government partners based on the latest weekly data.
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Jamaica Coalition, Grand Coalition or maybe a surprise after all? In the weeks leading up to the Bundestag election on September 24, 2017, Prof. Pierfrancesco La Mura, Ph.D., who holds the Chair of Economics and Information Systems at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management, and his colleague Prof. Dr. André Casajus shed light on what would be mathematically possible and what the new government might look like in the end. The calculations, which are updated on a weekly basis, are available at .
Based on current information, a Grand Coalition (the Union parties [Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union] and Social Democratic Party), a Jamaica Coalition (the Union, Green Party and Free Democratic Party) or a coalition between the Union, Green Party and the Left Party could obtain a stable majority.
When processing and analyzing the forecast data, the professors distinguished between minimal winning coalitions, which contain all parties required to achieve a majority, and stable coalitions, where they consider the ideological orientation of the individual parties and exclude unlikely government constellations, such as a participation by the Alternative for Germany.
The calculations of the negotiation power of the individual parties in coalition talks as well as the possible distribution of ministerial posts by figures, which also includes the experiences from the 2013 coalition negotiations, are particularly interesting.
The strategically significant chancellor's post, for instance, is equated with five ministerial posts by the researchers. The Union (CDU/CSU), however, granted the Social Democrats a disproportionately high number of ministerial posts to increase the appeal of their offer, therefore preventing a coalition between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Left Party and the Green Party. Based on the latest surveys over the election, the SPD could, once again, expect six ministerial posts (30 percent) in a Grand Coalition with CDU/CSU. In the event of a Jamaica coalition, the Green Party (three to four ministries) and the Free Democratic Party (one to two ministries) would have to split these posts between them according to the number of votes they received.
The foundation for these calculations is the data gathered and evaluated on a weekly basis by the INSA polling institute from Erfurt and its partner YouGov through their so-called Sunday Question: "If the parliamentary election took place next Sunday, which of the following parties would get your vote?"
HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management
HHL is a university-level institution and ranks amongst the leading international business schools. The goal of the oldest business school in German-speaking Europe is to educate effective, responsible and entrepreneurially-minded leaders. HHL stands out for its excellent teaching, its clear research focus, its effective knowledge transfer into practice as well as its outstanding student services. The courses of study include full and part-time Master in Management as well as MBA programs, a Doctoral program and Executive Education. HHL is accredited by AACSB International.
Weitere Informationen:
- http://www.hhl.de/bundestagswahl
- http://www.hhl.de
- http://www.hhl.de/information-systems
Quelle: idw
